If Trump Loses, it will Be His Fault: Chris Rush’s Election Analysis
Tomorrow, the election will be over and we will have our terrible President-elect. Once it’s all over, there will be no shortage of opinion and analyses of the outcome and how we got there, so let me present my analysis ahead of time. I do believe that Donald J. Trump will lose tomorrow, and an hour or so later, the blame game will begin in earnest.
Trump will no doubt eventually blame the GOP (even though they did everything but perform a human sacrifice to get him elected), “Never Trump” people (even though there are only like three of us left) and the biased mainstream media, who are truly biased but that has been the case for every Republican in the modern era.
I believe Donald J. Trump will lose to the worst candidate to ever run on the Democrat side, and he’ll have no one to blame but himself. The first reason I believe he will lose is because of the polls. Since the primary, Trump has been losing to Hillary in nearly every national poll –except in recent days. In the wake of the FBI announcement a week ago Friday, the race has tightened, but at the end of the day, I don’t think it will be enough.
I hear lots of people tell me how the polling is wrong, it’s all rigged, they are oversampling Hillary voters, undercounting Trump voters, etc. This may be true of one or two polls, but when the collection of all polls points in one direction, it is most likely accurate. Take the GOP primaries for example. If you look back, the polling in these primaries, which had Trump winning, was mostly accurate. And it definitely did NOT tend to undercount Trump voters.
In fact, in many states (such as the Iowa caucuses, where the final polls had Trump winning), the polls overestimated Trump’s support. In Iowa, the final RCP polling average had Trump winning by 5, and he ended up losing by 3. The 8-point swing in Iowa was largely due to Trump’s lack of a ground game, which we’ll discuss in more detail later.
So if/when Trump loses, whose fault will it be? His and his alone, and here’s why:
- No Foresight
During presidential primaries, things always tend to get ugly, and candidates punch hard at each other, attempting to knock them out so they can become the nominee. We even saw mild-mannered Mitt Romney do this to Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum four years ago. But unlike a boxing match where contenders touch gloves at the end and say “good match”, this primary ended with Trump getting really personal – punching his opponents’ wives, brothers, fathers, and anyone else he didn’t like.
For example, he blamed George W. Bush for 9-11, which did not sit well with most Republicans. He called Cruz’s wife ugly, implied that Cruz’s father was involved in the JFK assassination, and compared Dr. Ben Carson to a pedophile. Then he shielded his first campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, after he manhandled Michelle Fields, a reporter for Breitbart News, the outlet whose CEO is now running Trump’s campaign (that’s a whole different conversation for another day).
It was this scorched earth campaign against opponents both political and in media and entertainment that gave rise to the #NeverTrump movement. For the most part, Trump was not going after his opponents on policy differences like a typical political opponent would, he instead got nasty and very personal. So much so, that even Mark Levin joined the NeverTrumpers for a weekend.
Needless to say, Trump’s juvenile behavior made it very difficult for supporters of his primary opponents to get onboard the Trump Train. And the sad part is, all this could have been avoided if he hadn’t insisted on acting like a 12-year old. What if, instead, he would have had the foresight to say to himself, “could my behavior now cost me in the general?” and “what can I do to reach out to my opponents and their supporters, so we can have a unified ticket this fall?”
- An Insufficient Ground Game
You’d think he would have learned his lesson from the primaries, and attempted to build a better ground game for the general election. Unfortunately, he did not. In every battleground state, Hillary had far more field offices than Trump.
Here are the number of field offices each candidate had open as of September:
- Florida: H:34 T:1
- North Carolina: H:31 T:0
- Ohio: H:36 T:16
- Pennsylvania: H:36 T:2
- Iowa: H:24 T:9
- New Hampshire: H:17 T:1
- Virginia: H:29. T:18
- Colorado: H:18. T:8
As you can see, Hillary’s on-the-ground presence dwarfs the Donald’s. Trump does not have a real ground game because he thinks that he can win by doing a rally in every city. Though the rallies may be fun and the size of the rallies provides some measure of enthusiasm for the candidate, they can’t replace the power of boots on the ground. But since it worked out for him during the primary, Trump is counting on his lack of a ground game not costing him in the general.
- No Depth of Policy Knowledge
Trump had several weeks between the time he wrapped up the nomination in early May until the July convention, then into the fall to study up on the Republican platform, conservative policies, and just basic issues that would be discussed during the general election. But he couldn’t be bothered to learn these things in detail. Instead, he softened his position on immigration, proposed more government programs (such as his mandatory paid maternity leave plan), and continued to speak highly of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. During the debates, when it came time to have a coherent conversation about foreign policy…forget about it – he left that to his very capable VP nominee Mike Pence, who outshined him and every other character in this election debacle as the only adult in the room. Oh, and Trump also said he’d have the Supreme Court look into Hillary’s email scandal, not knowing that it is not the role of the judicial branch to take orders from the President. All of this (and much more) just fuels the argument that the guy is simply unqualified for the highest office in the land.
- Lack of Discipline and Focus
How much time was wasted in the general going after Republicans, and every other shining object besides Hillary? Many times, the Donald demonstrated his lack of discipline. For example, the very next day after his convention speech, he went on the attack against Ted Cruz. Later, he spent a week attacking Paul Ryan, a judge of Mexican decent, a former miss universe, and the list goes on and on.
My Conclusion: You heard it here first, when the dust settles on Tuesday, and the question of who is to blame for Trump’s loss is being debated, the undeniable truth will be himself. Trump ran against the most fundamentally-flawed Democrat candidate in well over a generation, a candidate that probably every one of the other 16 Republican candidates would have beaten.
With the widespread corruption surrounding Hillary and those around her, all Trump had to do was convince the electorate he was sane, and unfortunately, he seems to have failed even that basis test. There is even an argument to be made that he never really wanted to win, and given his behavior, it seems like there might be some validity to this argument. So this is my prediction – Donald J. Trump will lose tomorrow. Could I be wrong? Of Course!! Thankfully, this will all be over tomorrow, and we’ll know the answer very soon.
Listen to this week’s podcast discussing the vision of All Hands On Deck and tomorrow’s election:
Christopher Rush is an author, speaker, evangelist, pro-life activist, and his current book, Another Tornado is Coming, was released in September. Chris is founder of 3 ministries and has a passion for working with inner-city youth and protecting the life of the unborn. This past summer, Chris was an alternate delegate to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland for Ted Cruz, representing Minnesota’s 6th District. His current ministry, Allhandsondeck, is a Minnesota-based abortion Abolitionist organization.
Chris may be reached at: